Variables matter in land development:

I doubt there is any business that isn’t subject to multiple variables when a serious effort is made to produce a profitable outcome. In land development variables tend to be more complex, not because any one variable is mind-blowing by itself, but because there are so many of them. Each individual variable can lead to radical swings as it’s individual effect shows up in the bigger picture.

I remember a project where months of energy was wasted drilling multiple test wells, measuring water quantity and quality, monitoring stream drawdown - all toward getting state approved water rights. In the end the state denied them all and I had to do a 180 degree turn and settle on public water at a huge additional cost. A bet gone wrong and I think my water rights attorney summed it up best when he gave me his down home style wrap-up: “Well”, he said, “Difficult undertakings like this are liable to change on you along the way.” Yep, and thanks Chuck…(I guess)!

How can variables be managed?

Experience and knowledge of the legal requirements for a project are clear enough, along with professional advisement, but plat applications can still be subject to rulings based on the human judgement; in other words interpretation. When it’s the Planning Department and Hearing Examiner doing the judging, the “interpretation” is pretty much binding. So, how do we find ways to seize and move beyond these pesky and sometimes dangerous variables in land development?

Technology to the rescue? Well…maybe.

Project management software might be one way. It has come a long way over time and I’ve used three of them extensively. Truth be told, I don’t think they are the bedrock solution to managing variables. They can track them, but not manage them going forward as well as they might. It has to be more than measuring progress of a critical path, or digitally displaying project benchmarks in living color. The main problem is that we are mainly tracking workflow, but the key future outcomes are dependent on our personal decision making (i.e. speculating) as project managers.

So what is the gap?

It would be ideal if in some way I could design an entire project from the conceptual stage all the way to build-out that accounts for not only the known factors, but also accurately predicts and solves the variables.

Read on to see a possible new way….

Generated Design and AI:

Generated design and artificial intelligence might be used to produce optimal designs and reduce or eliminate the risk of hundreds of complex variables. Faster time to completion and less risk could be the result!

How would it work?

First, the parameters on project size, required materials and additional major design elements are input. Then the design software and AI tools are used to produce the highest priority outcome. The one that best suits the project, designed from the beginning to the end.

Beyond the design of the project for site efficiencies and architecture, the possibilities are expanded to include externalities like cost of living, transportation and energy consumption.

One representation of this emerging technolgy is Delve Software by Sidewalk Labs.

Delve by Sidewalk Labs:
Products by Sidewalk Labs | Solutions for Sustainable and Affordable Cities

I like the idea:

I like the idea but I’ve never done it. Plus, I’ll probably be long gone before it takes hold. Still, I keep imagining what it would be like to use these tools to position each lot to capture the optimal light conditions in every season.

And what about homesite placement? What if I could use these tools to give my builders the optimal homesite position based right down to each room in the home? It might be possible for me to optimize my lot pricing while showing my builder buyers more ways to increase theirs.

Variables matter in land development:

Between 3D printing for site and home construction and generative software with an AI boost, land and real estate development is poised for a great future in my opinion. I don’t see the human factor being eliminated or even marginalized, so I wouldn’t feel threatened by it. Instead, I think the smart land developer will learn about the way these tools can assist and keep a close eye on how they evolve going forward. Good luck and stay sharp!

Contact me at: ldr@landdevelopmentrealities.com